Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from effects of which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble high-resolution (10 km) regional model simulations project near-term in extremes, mainly heat waves intense rainfall, for period (2021–2050). Near-term projections represent valuable input designing sound policies. Our suggest heatwaves will become more frequent severe under business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes wet-bulb temperature (a humidity metric important evaluating humid stress) western part including Bogra, Ishurdi, Jessore are likely exceed extreme danger threshold (according U.S. National Weather Service criterion), has rarely been observed current climate. The return periods also significantly shortened across country. addition, country-averaged rainfall projected increase by about 6% during summer months, with largest increases (above 10%) eastern mountainous areas, such Sylhet Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes simulated. results particularly susceptible near future, form over